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Clinton’s Lead Over Who?

Article By Writer Jaime Andrade Author: Jaime Andrade
Published: August 25, 2007
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In angus-reid.com I came across a story showing the dominance of Hillary Rodham Clinton in the latest polls head to head with Republicans.
She beats out Romney and Thompson.

But on closer inspection, what happened to Rudy Giuliani the frontrunner?

In all polls I have seen since March Giuliani is a draw or leader by 8+ points over Hillary Clinton.
Angus-reid.com seems to present a limited story for whatever reason showing her lead over the 2nd and third place Republican candidates with no mention of Rudy Giuliani at all.

“Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a slight advantage against a prospective Republican presidential nominee in the United States, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator, while 44 per cent would vote for Arizona senator John McCain.

Support for both Rodham Clinton and McCain in this match-up increased by one point since early August. In a separate contest, Rodham Clinton holds an 11-point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney”

In case nobody has informed them, McCain has been dead in the water since he supported amnesty for anyone that can jump a fence, and Romney has always been the 2nd or third in the Republican polls (though surging).

The fact that she is even compared with McCain shows either an agenda or lack of knowledge of current events.

“The Arizona Senator’s support has dropped to about half what it was last month, and now he is just 2 percentage points ahead of Newt Gingrich (5 percent). “ - Fox news August 24th, 2007

Every source of news except angus-reid.com seems to realize that Giuliani is well in the lead. (for now)

“Among Republicans, Giuliani receives the backing of 29 percent, which puts him 15 percentage points ahead of his closest competitor ”

Fox news http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,294294,00.html

“Giuliani, the former Republican mayor of New York, would edge out in the 7th District U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., 45 percent to 43″

http://www.battlecreekenquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070824/NEWS01/308240014

“The Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton edging Rudy Giuliani 46 to 43 percent” 4pt+-

You can also see a collection of other matchups in a old article here below. These are getting older but the trend has always been a dead heat or a Rudy lead over a Hillary opposition.

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 27-28, 2007.
“Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?” Names rotated
Rudy Giuliani (R) = 40%
Hillary Clinton (D) = 42%

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. March 23-26, 2007. N=1,102 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
“If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican, and you had to choose, for which of these candidates would you vote?”
Rudy Giuliani (R) = 50%
Hillary Clinton (D) = 41%

McLaughlin & Associates (R). March 21-25, 2007. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
Rudy Giuliani (R) = 42%
Hillary Clinton (D) = 40%

American Research Group poll. March 2-5, 2007. N=2,104 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.2.
“If the 2008 presidential election were being held today between [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican, for whom would you vote?”
Rudy Giuliani (R) = 48%
Hillary Clinton (D) = 42%

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). March 2-5, 2007. N=1,007 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
“If the next election for president were held today, and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican candidate and [see below] were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?”
Rudy Giuliani (R) = 47%
Hillary Clinton (D) = 42%

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Feb. 28-March 1, 2007. N=1,202 adults nationwide. Results below are among registered voters (MoE ± 4).
“Now I’m going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in the 2008 election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election for president were being held today. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican. Who would you vote for?” If other/unsure: “As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward [see below], the Democrat; or [see below], the Republican
Rudy Giuliani (R) = 47%
Hillary Clinton (D) = 42%

The last thing to keep in mind I heard discussed on the radio recently is the Vice Presidential choices. The idea that Hillary would take barack Obama as her Vice President to make the best team really doesnt buy her many votes. Minority and liberal/leftists already support her and the overlap between their base is huge.

Obama doesnt bring alot of undecided voters to Hillary, but Huckabee could bring alot of social conservatives to any voter wary of Mitt or Rudy, as could Fred Thompson.

On the other hand a Giuliani or Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson or perhaps Mike Huckabee combination could bring alot of social conservatives back to Rudy or Mitt because of such strong choices in conservative VP’s.

Any questions of Mitt Romney’s faith or beliefs would be quickly squashed on stage with Mike Huckabee, as would Rudy’s commitment to the right with Thompson.

The ability to surge with the choice of a VP is there for the Republicans and not for the talking head dems that all bring the same message and fight for the same minority and elite leftist voters.

Hillary Clinton is leading over the also ran lower candidates in the Republican race

Hillary Clinton

Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani 2008

Rudy Giuliani president

Hillary for president

Mitt Romney

Fre Thompson

Election 2008

Presidential race

polls

presidential poll

candidate polls

13 Responses to “Clinton’s Lead Over Who?”

MCG on August 26th, 2007 12:39 am

You wrote: Angus-reid.com seems to present a limited story for whatever reason showing her lead over the 2nd and third place Republican candidates with no mention of Rudy Giuliani at all.

Limited story? No mention of Giuliani? Get your facts straight! There are dozens of polls in the Angus Reid Global Monitor which feature Hillary vs. Giuliani numbers, including some that are certainly more recent than the ones you cite in your “article”.

The report you attempted to comment features the results of a poll by Rasmussen Reports which only featured two match-ups. There is a recent Rasmussen poll that reviews the Hillary vs. Giuliani race. Of course, you would not know about it, because it was conducted this month, and you’re apparently comfortable citing polls from March!

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16918

I would strongly recommend you to read more carefully, and realize that the survey was conducted by Rasmussen Reports (there’s even a link, but you were probably too caught up in your pedestrian conspiracy theories to notice).

Also, for the benefit of your readers, you should try to employ a better transition when you go from discussing head-to-head polls to Republican or Democratic primary polls. Right now, your entry—aside from misleading and excruciatingly uninformed—is also confusing.
Michael Kraft on August 26th, 2007 1:34 am

The story Jaime comments on here has no mention of Giuliani:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16958

As he stated it did not.

To press a story about her lead over Romney and McCain is useless, since neither is likely to be the candidate in the final race.

Also, I see Jaime said “You can also see a collection of other matchups in a old article here below. These are getting older but the trend has always been a dead heat or a Rudy lead over a Hillary opposition.”

So your comment about the polls being from March was already ackowledged, but if it made you feel superior to mention it, who cares.

And Jaime’s comment going from head to head to party specific polls are perfectly story-relevent since he was commenting on the lack of relevence of how “she matches up with McCain since he is a nobody in the party race.”

One fact was related to the other as I read it.

The fact that he is in 4rth place amongst Republicans is the reason why he should not be the center of an article that states:

“Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a slight advantage against a prospective Republican presidential nominee in the United States”

Since McCain, as shown above, is not “a prospective Republican presidential nominee ” as Angus writes it.

Since he is at about 9%.

You see how one supported the other.
But you are entitled to whatever angry rants you like.
Jaime Andrade on August 26th, 2007 1:38 am

My main point was that McCain is no longer considered a contender to me or to many other after Amnesty crashed his campaign.

To write (or run a poll) based n the frontrunner vs a 9% polling republican was a waste of text.

McCain is bringing in less money than Ron Paul, hes not even a serious topic anymore.
MCG on August 26th, 2007 2:14 am

It’s certainly interesting to see how you defend each other without acknowledging your own blunders, and with very poor grammar and no regard for proper typing. Just be more careful when quoting an organization that actually conducts real research.
Jaime Andrade on August 26th, 2007 1:05 pm

Well I would never ignore the advice of anyone taking the time to give it, no matter how crassly given.

And, as you said, Angus-reid.com wasn’t conducting any research, it was Rasmussen Reports that conducted “real research”. So I will continue to form opinions on how others present 2nd hand facts, and when these facts are irrelevent. Thank you though.
MCG on August 26th, 2007 2:18 pm

No, no, no… You’ve got it all wrong. Angus-Reid.com has a database of more than 16,000 polls from all over the world. You’ve attempted to sully its reputation by claiming there’s an “agenda” on the way it does its research, by assuming that there are no reports on the Hillary vs. Giuliani match-up. This is wrong, and you have not acknowledged your omission.

Everyone if entitled to an opinion, and there are many ways to discuss your views on a particular poll (one of more than 16,000 featured on the website). If a Hillary-McCain poll is pointless to you, say so, but please:

1) Don’t try to hide behind this “what were they thinking” facade. Public opinion research entails more than pleasing bloggers. Every match-up is important to assess the progress of a campaign.

2) Review the report properly so you can pinpoint what to criticize and why.

3) Don’t claim an agenda (or lack of knowledge of current events) to cover up for your own limitations. You probably would have learned something looking at polls (more recent polls than the ones you cited to back up your thesis) on the website. Instead, you went for the easy “hollier than thou” approach, and ended up censuring something you did not properly understand.
Ryan on August 28th, 2007 3:52 pm

Why the hell would the GOP nominate a crossdresser who bangs their cousins?
Michael Kraft on September 3rd, 2007 7:30 pm

You mean Hillary, who dresses like a woman and is from Arkansas?

:)
Michael Kraft on September 3rd, 2007 7:30 pm

Heres a seperate source areeing with my view that angus has many polls that have no relevence.

http://communities.canada.com/nationalpost/blogs/posted/archive/2007/08/30/read-it-here-poll-reveals-utterly-meaningless-stuff-about-hillary-clinton.aspx
Michael Kraft on September 4th, 2007 6:36 pm

A link to another person pointing out an angus poll being irrelevant?
Which is the exact point you seem to ignore while trying to think of witty insults.

“It’s a mystery who pays for this stuff…..Presumably some offshore mega-corporation with an unlimited budget, insatiable curiosity and no common sense deems it crucial to know who Italians would vote for if only they could vote for someone, just in case Mr. Bush decides to extend the franchise to specified non-citizens in the hope they will be grateful enough to give the Republicans another term in the White House….”

And the link to “some blogger” is
Kelly McParland is the Post’s politics editor.
MCG on September 4th, 2007 9:13 pm

You deleted my two previous comments… Shame on you!
Michael Kraft on September 5th, 2007 2:24 pm

I did, as they were not related to the story nor discussion and just insults.
MCG1 on February 12th, 2008 5:56 pm

It’s February 2008. Let’s review how Jaime’s “analysis” played out, shall we?

McCain has been dead in the water since he supported amnesty for anyone that can jump a fence - He is the presumptive Republican nominee.

The fact that (Clinton) is even compared with McCain shows either an agenda or lack of knowledge of current events - Neither, actually. Just journalistic discipline, something that is evidently lacking in this blog.

Angus-reid.com seems to present a limited story for whatever reason - Not quite. We have followed every candidate and every match-up. Jaime simply did not do his research.

Better luck next time.