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If registered voter polls are always wrong by 2-4% in Obama’s favor, why is it media keeps using this as their polling model?
If they know the numbers do not reflect reality, why keep printing what is essentially a lie.
We have been hard at the issue of registered voter polls vs the more accurate likely voter polls.
The conclusion is that organizations that do small sample sized registered voter polls exist only to affect the averages of all polls. People tend to ignore many polls or investigate the sources, but the RCP average or other average of all recent polls tend to have more credibility.
With this fact why not roll out poll after poll using less than the best methodology with the goal; of getting headlines and in the same move to distort the averages of all polls with you bad data.
Every pollster know registered voter polls are wrong in favor of Democrat candidates by 2% to 4%. No pollster argues this fact. If this is true and common knowledge why is there not an adjustment made to the final numbers with the goal of getting a accurate estimate of outcome?
Good polls adjust for voter breakdown, demographic and all other factors to simulate a real election yet many of these fraud pollsters continue to use registered voters and not adjusting for the know flaw in this sample.
The easy answer? They want to keep pumping out polls that error in favor of Obama to influence public opinion of who is winning and who is popular. We cover the facts behind reality in this post about Likely voter polls showing Romney even or winning since selecting Paul Ryan.
If we visit RCP we see that not a single LIKELY voter poll in the past 3 months shows Obama winning by more than 4%. The margin of error is generally around 3%. Even the most favorable Likely voter poll shows this race a toss up. On the other hand “registered voter polls” show Obama winning on average by 3% to 7%. These flawed polls get rolled out week after week and they do their job of hiding the more accurate polls.
Keep pumping out bad information you know to be flawed to hide the fact that Obama is not winning. Pretty sure practice this is the definition of misinformation.
At the time of writing this the latest Rasmussen tracking Poll has Romney ahead by 1% among registered voters. This is an accurate poll that uses the best practice of registered voters in it’s sample. This poll also uses 1500 person sample size unlike the < 1000 samples used by the garbage CNN, ABC, Democracy Corp and others use. Those sources that always show Obama winning by 4-8% use samples less than 1000 people and they use registered voters.
Those sources also know that the registered voter polls will be wrong by 2-4%, it is just a historic fact.
So if they know their results will be inaccurate, and they know by how much….why is it they keep doing it, printing it as facts and seem OK with being wrong in Obama’s favor week after week?
Over at the New York Times, Nate Silver even admits in this piece that registered voter polls are 2% inaccurate in favor of Democrats. But pollsters like this always say “RV polls ‘favor’ Democrats. If a poll deviates from the reality and outcome that’s not favor, that’s wrong, inaccurate and misleading.
Real Polls Continue to Swing Romney
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