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Romney leading in real polls

By on August 15, 2012

So here it is August 15th, a Wednesday, days after the selection of Paul Ryan for Vice President. MSNBC, TIME, Newsweek and other sources of news written by and for liberals are out slandering and trying to minimize the selection and it’s effect on this election. The question is, how much of a bump is happening and how much had already been in place skewed by election pools that lie and distort reality?

Today the Gallup Tracking Poll for 8/14/2012 has Romney ahead by 2 points. This is the first time he has lead in Gallup weekly polls for 2 months. The last time Romney won on this weekly poll was June 20th, 2012. You wouldn’t know this fact from the propaganda news. When I Google “Gallup Poll Romney”, not a single news source featured a story atop the search results. The Liberal propaganda of the USA TODAY actually decides to run a story on polls of “how unpopular” Paul Ryan is on the same day Romney/Ryan lead in two major polls.

Yes USA TODAY, the only two polls since the selection show a 5% rise from the RCP average….you just go invent reality for the Obama Zombies to sell papers.

Compare this coverage to the polls of the last 2 weeks which favored Obama that got around the clock coverage.

The only other presidential poll that came out yesterday was the Rasmussen Poll of the two candidates. This pool has Romney ahead by 3 points. This marks the first time Romney has led in 2 back to back polls since June 20th, 2012. Part of this fact stem from the intentional bad polling methodology we will discuss below.

Now the RCP Average shows Obama up by an average of 3.7% because it takes into account the most recent 7 pools and averages them out.

But lets look at those polls a little closer with some true facts in the back of our minds.
FACT #1 : Likely voter polls are always more accurate to the outcome of an election.

“Both Pew Research and Nate Silver have each looked at the differences for different elections from 2004, 2008 and 2010; and they both came to essentially the same answer:
- Polling “adults” generally favors Democrats by a net of 7%.
- Polling “registered voters” generally favors Democrats by a net of 4%.
- Polling “likely voters” is always the most accurate.”

FACT #2 : In all statistical analysis, the larger the sample the more accurate the result. This needs no resource, even a liberal knows this is a mathematical fact.

Now lets look at the last 7 polls on Realclearpolitics.com, the ones being used to generate the average showing Obama ahead by 3.7%.

Rasmussen Tracking 8/11 – 8/13 1500 LV 3.0 44 47 Romney +3
Gallup Tracking 8/7 – 8/13 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
Politico/GWU 8/5 – 8/9 1000 LV 3.1 48 47 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 8/7 – 8/8 911 RV 3.5 52 45 Obama +7
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/3 – 8/10 828 RV 3.5 46 39 Obama +7
FOX News 8/5 – 8/7 930 RV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
Reuters/Ipsos 8/2 – 8/6 1014 RV 3.4 49 42 Obama +7

First fact here is the most recent polls both Show Romney/Ryan leading. This is not even a battleground poll, but a nationwide poll which had tended to show Obama further ahead in the past.

Second fact here is that the four polls (from a week ago showing Obama with the largest lead of +7, +9 are all registered voter polls which always distort the results to favor Democrat candidates.

Third fact is that the three polls of this 7 that “are the most accurate” are the three newest ones showing Romney with a lead.

Why are they the most accurate? because they qualify on ever fact we have stated about polling above. The two polls that use “likely voters” have Romney +3 and Obama +1, the Romney +3 poll also samples a 50% larger pool of voters making it even more accurate.
If you average the two polls using likely voters which are both most recent you get a Romney +2% lead.

Now the Romney +2 Gallup poll also passes the test for the most accurate polls of this list in this way. #1. It is most recent, #2 It is Registered voters, BUT samples 3500 people as opposed to < 1000 in the other misleading polls.

The conclusion from above is that pollsters know what makes a poll accurate. Polling companies know likely voters are more accurate to reality and that larger sample sizes are always more accurate to anything in statistical analysis, so why so many polls that go against these facts?

When you "know your source" of facts and news, and you know what makes a poll accurate, the reality of all these numbers is that Romney & Ryan is leading this race now.

The most recent, largest sample size and use of likely voters polls average out to Romney +2, while the registered voters, over a week old and smallest sample sizes show Obama +7.

Romney leading in real polls

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