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Romney Leading Polls in Realityland
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The most recent poll in the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Romney ahead by 3%. In a recent post by my colleague he points out this is also the most accurate poll.
The average from RCP shows a combined number from the most recent 7 polls. This average is shown as Obama +3.7%.
The problem is when you average these numbers you ignore which are bad numbers and which are accurate numbers.
Registered voter polls are always less accurate to the final outcome, and distort the true facts by an average of 4% to democrats. This is not a bias but a proven reality.
Rasmussen is the most accurate historically in predicting the final actual outcome of presidential elections, this too is a proven fact.
Larger sample sizes are always more accurate than smaller sizes.
Likely Voter polls are always more accurate to the reality and outcome.
Polls taken AFTER the news of Paul Ryan as the running mate will be more accurate as it is more recent.
So when we look at these facts:
OF THE 7 Most recent polls on Real Clear Politics average of polls:
The 2 Polls that use “likely voters” Show an average of Romney winning by 2%, while the less accurate 5 polls of “registered voters” Have an average of Obama wining +6%. But if you also consider the number of people polled in each one and weight each response equally these “registered voters” polls actually show Obama +4.5% since the smaller polls were more distorted.
The 2 polls with the largest sample size, show Romney Winning +2 and Romney wining +4%.
The Rasmussen run polls, which are proven to be the most accurate have Romney ahead by 4%.
The most recent polls that took place after Paul Ryan was selected as VP average out to Romney ahead by 3%.
Enjoy more facts.
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Romney Leading Polls in Realityland
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